market-sizing-analysis by wshobson

---
name: market-sizing-analysis
description: This skill should be used when the user asks to "calculate TAM", "determine SAM", "estimate SOM", "size the market", "calculate market opportunity", "what's the total addressable market", or requests market sizing analysis for a startup or business opportunity.
version: 1.0.0
---

# Market Sizing Analysis

Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities.

## Overview

Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay).

## Core Concepts

### The Three-Tier Market Framework

**TAM (Total Addressable Market)**

- Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share
- Defines the universe of potential customers
- Used for long-term vision and market validation
- Example: All email marketing software revenue globally

**SAM (Serviceable Available Market)**

- Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service
- Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints
- Represents realistic addressable opportunity
- Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America

**SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)**

- Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years
- Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics
- Used for financial projections and fundraising
- Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape

### When to Use Each Methodology

**Top-Down Analysis**

- Use when established market research exists
- Best for mature, well-defined markets
- Validates market existence and growth
- Starts with industry reports and narrows down

**Bottom-Up Analysis**

- Use when targeting specific customer segments
- Best for new or niche markets
- Most credible for investors
- Builds from customer data and pricing

**Value Theory**

- Use when creating new market categories
- Best for disruptive innovations
- Estimates based on value creation
- Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution

## Three-Methodology Framework

### Methodology 1: Top-Down Analysis

Start with total market size and narrow to addressable segments.

**Process:**

1. Identify total market category from research reports
2. Apply geographic filters (target regions)
3. Apply segment filters (target industries/customers)
4. Calculate competitive positioning adjustments

**Formula:**

```
TAM = Total Market Category Size
SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Segment %
SOM = SAM × Realistic Capture Rate (2-5%)
```

**When to use:** Established markets with available research (e.g., SaaS, fintech, e-commerce)

**Strengths:** Quick, uses credible data, validates market existence

**Limitations:** May overestimate for new categories, less granular

### Methodology 2: Bottom-Up Analysis

Build market size from customer segment calculations.

**Process:**

1. Define target customer segments
2. Estimate number of potential customers per segment
3. Determine average revenue per customer
4. Calculate realistic penetration rates

**Formula:**

```
TAM = Σ (Segment Size × Annual Revenue per Customer)
SAM = TAM × (Segments You Can Serve / Total Segments)
SOM = SAM × Realistic Penetration Rate (Year 3-5)
```

**When to use:** B2B, niche markets, specific customer segments

**Strengths:** Most credible for investors, granular, defensible

**Limitations:** Requires detailed customer research, time-intensive

### Methodology 3: Value Theory

Calculate based on value created and willingness to pay.

**Process:**

1. Identify problem being solved
2. Quantify current cost of problem (time, money, inefficiency)
3. Calculate value of solution (savings, gains, efficiency)
4. Estimate willingness to pay (typically 10-30% of value)
5. Multiply by addressable customer base

**Formula:**

```
Value per Customer = Problem Cost × % Solved by Solution
Price per Customer = Value × Willingness to Pay % (10-30%)
TAM = Total Potential Customers × Price per Customer
SAM = TAM × % Meeting Buy Criteria
SOM = SAM × Realistic Adoption Rate
```

**When to use:** New categories, disruptive innovations, unclear existing markets

**Strengths:** Shows value creation, works for new markets

**Limitations:** Requires assumptions, harder to validate

## Step-by-Step Process

### Step 1: Define the Market

Clearly specify what market is being measured.

**Questions to answer:**

- What problem is being solved?
- Who are the target customers?
- What's the product/service category?
- What's the geographic scope?
- What's the time horizon?

**Example:**

- Problem: E-commerce companies struggle with email marketing automation
- Customers: E-commerce stores with >$1M annual revenue
- Category: AI-powered email marketing software
- Geography: North America initially, global expansion
- Horizon: 3-5 year opportunity

### Step 2: Gather Data Sources

Identify credible data for calculations.

**Top-Down Sources:**

- Industry research reports (Gartner, Forrester, IDC)
- Government statistics (Census, BLS, trade associations)
- Public company filings and earnings
- Market research firms (Statista, CB Insights, PitchBook)

**Bottom-Up Sources:**

- Customer interviews and surveys
- Sales data and CRM records
- Industry databases (LinkedIn, ZoomInfo, Crunchbase)
- Competitive intelligence
- Academic research

**Value Theory Sources:**

- Customer problem quantification
- Time/cost studies
- ROI case studies
- Pricing research and willingness-to-pay surveys

### Step 3: Calculate TAM

Apply chosen methodology to determine total market.

**For Top-Down:**

1. Find total category size from research
2. Document data source and year
3. Apply growth rate if needed
4. Validate with multiple sources

**For Bottom-Up:**

1. Count total potential customers
2. Calculate average annual revenue per customer
3. Multiply to get TAM
4. Break down by segment

**For Value Theory:**

1. Quantify total addressable customer base
2. Calculate value per customer
3. Estimate pricing based on value
4. Multiply for TAM

### Step 4: Calculate SAM

Narrow TAM to serviceable addressable market.

**Apply Filters:**

- Geographic constraints (regions you can serve)
- Product limitations (features you currently have)
- Customer requirements (size, industry, use case)
- Distribution channel access
- Regulatory or compliance restrictions

**Formula:**

```
SAM = TAM × (% matching all filters)
```

**Example:**

- TAM: $10B global email marketing
- Geographic filter: 40% (North America)
- Product filter: 30% (e-commerce focus)
- Feature filter: 60% (need AI capabilities)
- SAM = $10B × 0.40 × 0.30 × 0.60 = $720M

### Step 5: Calculate SOM

Determine realistic obtainable market share.

**Consider:**

- Current market share of competitors
- Typical market share for new entrants (2-5%)
- Resources available (funding, team, time)
- Go-to-market effectiveness
- Competitive advantages
- Time to achieve (3-5 years typically)

**Conservative Approach:**

```
SOM (Year 3) = SAM × 2%
SOM (Year 5) = SAM × 5%
```

**Example:**

- SAM: $720M
- Year 3 SOM: $720M × 2% = $14.4M
- Year 5 SOM: $720M × 5% = $36M

### Step 6: Validate and Triangulate

Cross-check using multiple methods.

**Validation Techniques:**

1. Compare top-down and bottom-up results (should be within 30%)
2. Check against public company revenues in space
3. Validate customer count assumptions
4. Sense-check pricing assumptions
5. Review with industry experts
6. Compare to similar market categories

**Red Flags:**

- TAM that's too small (< $1B for VC-backed startups)
- TAM that's too large (unsupported by data)
- SOM that's too aggressive (> 10% in 5 years for new entrant)
- Inconsistency between methodologies (> 50% difference)

## Industry-Specific Considerations

### SaaS Markets

**Key Metrics:**

- Number of potential businesses in target segment
- Average contract value (ACV)
- Typical market penetration rates
- Expansion revenue potential

**TAM Calculation:**

```
TAM = Total Target Companies × Average ACV × (1 + Expansion Rate)
```

### Marketplace Markets

**Key Metrics:**

- Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of category
- Take rate (% of GMV you capture)
- Total transactions or users

**TAM Calculation:**

```
TAM = Total Category GMV × Expected Take Rate
```

### Consumer Markets

**Key Metrics:**

- Total addressable users/households
- Average revenue per user (ARPU)
- Engagement frequency

**TAM Calculation:**

```
TAM = Total Users × ARPU × Purchase Frequency per Year
```

### B2B Services

**Key Metrics:**

- Number of target companies by size/industry
- Average project value or retainer
- Typical buying frequency

**TAM Calculation:**

```
TAM = Total Target Companies × Average Deal Size × Deals per Year
```

## Presenting Market Sizing

### For Investors

**Structure:**

1. Market definition and problem scope
2. TAM/SAM/SOM with methodology
3. Data sources and assumptions
4. Growth projections and drivers
5. Competitive landscape context

**Key Points:**

- Lead with bottom-up calculation (most credible)
- Show triangulation with top-down
- Explain conservative assumptions
- Link to revenue projections
- Highlight market growth rate

### For Strategy

**Structure:**

1. Addressable customer segments
2. Prioritization by opportunity size
3. Entry strategy by segment
4. Expected penetration timeline
5. Resource requirements

**Key Points:**

- Focus on SAM and SOM
- Show segment-level detail
- Connect to go-to-market plan
- Identify expansion opportunities
- Discuss competitive positioning

## Common Mistakes to Avoid

**Mistake 1: Confusing TAM with SAM**

- Don't claim entire market as addressable
- Apply realistic product/geographic constraints
- Be honest about serviceable market

**Mistake 2: Overly Aggressive SOM**

- New entrants rarely capture > 5% in 5 years
- Account for competition and resources
- Show realistic ramp timeline

**Mistake 3: Using Only Top-Down**

- Investors prefer bottom-up validation
- Top-down alone lacks credibility
- Always triangulate with multiple methods

**Mistake 4: Cherry-Picking Data**

- Use consistent, recent data sources
- Don't mix methodologies inappropriately
- Document all assumptions clearly

**Mistake 5: Ignoring Market Dynamics**

- Account for market growth/decline
- Consider competitive intensity
- Factor in switching costs and barriers

## Additional Resources

### Reference Files

For detailed methodologies and frameworks:

- **`references/methodology-deep-dive.md`** - Comprehensive guide to each methodology with step-by-step worksheets
- **`references/data-sources.md`** - Curated list of market research sources, databases, and tools
- **`references/industry-templates.md`** - Specific templates for SaaS, marketplace, consumer, B2B, and fintech markets

### Example Files

Working examples with complete calculations:

- **`examples/saas-market-sizing.md`** - Complete TAM/SAM/SOM for a B2B SaaS product
- **`examples/marketplace-sizing.md`** - Marketplace platform market opportunity calculation
- **`examples/value-theory-example.md`** - Value-based market sizing for disruptive innovation

Use these examples as templates for your own market sizing analysis. Each includes real numbers, data sources, and assumptions documented clearly.

## Quick Start

To perform market sizing analysis:

1. **Define the market** - Problem, customers, category, geography
2. **Choose methodology** - Bottom-up (preferred) or top-down + triangulation
3. **Gather data** - Industry reports, customer data, competitive intelligence
4. **Calculate TAM** - Apply methodology formula
5. **Narrow to SAM** - Apply product, geographic, segment filters
6. **Estimate SOM** - 2-5% realistic capture rate
7. **Validate** - Cross-check with alternative methods
8. **Document** - Show methodology, sources, assumptions
9. **Present** - Structure for audience (investors, strategy, operations)

For detailed step-by-step guidance on each methodology, reference the files in `references/` directory. For complete worked examples, see `examples/` directory.